If you run a hotel, tour operator, or attraction and you’re not preparing for Chinese New Year (CNY) 2026, you’re leaving real money on the table.

Chinese New Year 2026: Outbound Travel Predictions, Top Destinations, and What Tourism Businesses Should Do Now

I’ve been running Chinese inbound tourism campaigns since 2014. CNY is the one period every year where I see the biggest gap between businesses that prepared and those that didn’t. The ones that didn’t are usually the ones who underestimated how early Chinese travelers book, and how much they rely on Chinese platforms to decide where to go.

Spring Festival 2026 falls on February 17. The official holiday window is February 15 to 23, nine consecutive days off. That makes this one of the longest CNY breaks in years, and it will push more families to travel abroad rather than stay home for the crowds.

Post-pandemic recovery is already there: outbound bookings for Golden Week October 2025 hit +28% year-on-year, crossing above 2019 levels in several segments. For CNY 2026, most forecasts point to 20-40% growth in outbound trips versus CNY 2025.

CNY 2026: The Exact Dates

• Chinese New Year’s Eve: February 16, 2026 (Monday). Family dinners, fireworks, red envelopes.
• Lunar New Year’s Day: February 17, 2026 (Tuesday). Start of the Year of the Fire Horse.
• Official public holiday: February 15 to 23, 2026 (nine days, one of the longest ever due to weekend bridging).
• Full traditional period: February 17 to March 3, 2026, ending with the Lantern Festival.

Peak departure dates for outbound travel run from around February 10 through late February, with return trips staggered into early March. This extended window gives international destinations more time to capture visitors, but also means you need to start your campaigns earlier.

Why the Outbound Volume Will Be High

A few things are stacking up for 2026:

• Visa-free or visa-on-arrival access now covers 50+ countries for Chinese passport holders.
• Flight capacity on short-haul Asia routes is up 30-50% versus 2023. Long-haul is catching up.
• Independent travel (FIT) keeps growing. Rentals and private tours are up 40-50% versus group packages.
• Spending per traveler is increasing, especially on premium experiences. Premium cabin demand was up 74% during October 2025 Golden Week.

Total outbound trips during the CNY period could reach 50-80 million, up from around 40 million in 2025, with individual spending running 10-20% higher on average.

According to the World Travel and Tourism Council, China’s outbound tourism recovery is outpacing most other markets. Source: wttc.org.

What We Got Wrong at First

Early in my career here, we ran CNY campaigns starting in January. That was too late. By January, Chinese families who plan international trips have already booked flights and hotels. They’re comparing restaurants and activities at that point, not destinations.

We had a hotel client in Phuket who came to us in mid-January 2024 asking why their Chinese occupancy was flat. Their product was good, their WeChat account existed, but they had posted nothing since October. The travelers they wanted had already committed to Japan or Korea.

We moved the timeline. Now every CNY campaign we run starts in October or November of the previous year. That’s when Chinese families start researching, comparing, and saving posts on Xiaohongshu.

Where Chinese Travelers Are Going for CNY 2026

October 2025 Golden Week data from Ctrip and ForwardKeys gives a good read on CNY trends. Patterns repeat across holidays, with a winter preference for warmer climates.

Rank	Destination	Growth vs 2024 (Oct GW)	Why Chinese Travel There	CNY 2026 Outlook
1	Japan (Osaka, Tokyo, Hokkaido)	+100-200%	Shopping, snow, visa-free	Top pick again, ice festivals appeal
2	Thailand (Bangkok, Phuket, Chiang Mai)	+50-80%	Beaches, food, visa-free	Reliable family destination
3	South Korea (Seoul, Jeju)	+80-150%	K-culture, winter sports	Premium shoppers, K-pop events
4	Singapore and Malaysia	+60-100%	Clean, family-friendly, visa-free	Short-haul luxury, theme parks
5	Australia and New Zealand	+40-70%	Nature, English-speaking	Long-haul rebound, summer timing
6	UAE (Dubai, Abu Dhabi)	+27-229%	Luxury, shopping, desert	Fastest-growing premium segment
7	USA (California, New York)	+30-50%	Theme parks, outlets	Family visa routes, Disney
8	Vietnam and Indonesia (Bali, Phu Quoc)	+50-100%	Budget beaches	Value-driven groups
9	Europe (France, Italy)	+40-136%	Culture, visa easing	Growing long-haul segment
10	Emerging: Egypt, Kenya, Eastern Europe	+100%+	Adventure, safaris	Small but fast-growing niche

Southeast Asia captures around 60% of short-haul volume. Japan and Korea dominate North Asia. Long-haul destinations in Europe, the Middle East, and Oceania now make up 20-25% of outbound volume, up from roughly 10% before the pandemic.

A Real Example: What Preparation Looks Like

We worked with a beach resort in Morocco two years ago. The brief was to attract Chinese independent travelers for CNY. The property had everything going for it: beautiful, good service, interesting food story. But they had no Chinese digital presence at all.

We started in September: opened a Xiaohongshu account, produced 15 pieces of content showing the property through a Chinese traveler’s eyes (Mandarin captions, local food comparisons, desert scenery). We seeded content with three nano-influencers in October. By December, the account had 4,000 followers and three posts with over 10,000 views each.

CNY 2025 occupancy from Chinese guests: 22 booked nights versus zero the year before. Small number, but the client had never had a single Chinese guest before. The point is not the size of the result, it’s that the preparation window actually works.

What We Do Now: The Standard CNY Preparation List

Based on what we’ve learned across 200+ campaigns, this is the baseline for any tourism client targeting CNY:

1. Chinese payment options active by November: Alipay, WeChat Pay, UnionPay. Not optional. Over 70% of Chinese traveler transactions abroad are digital.
2. Xiaohongshu content live by October: At least 8-10 posts before the main booking window opens. See our Xiaohongshu marketing page for details on what format works.
3. WeChat Official Account with CNY-themed content: Specific posts about the property during Chinese New Year. Not generic. See WeChat marketing guidance for account setup.
4. Mandarin-speaking contact point: Even one bilingual staff member or a WeChat group for inquiries cuts complaints and increases bookings. Simple phrases plus translation tools work if a full hire is not possible.
5. KOL visits scheduled for October-November: Five to ten mid-tier influencers (50,000-500,000 followers) doing familiarity trips before the holiday. One viral video can generate six months of leads.
6. CNY-themed packages ready: Bundled hotel plus activity plus private guide. Chinese families traveling independently want the experience pre-organized but with flexibility.
7. Early-bird pricing window (December-January): Offer specific CNY dates at a premium. Premium cabin demand data confirms that Chinese travelers will pay more for confirmed availability.

For Douyin strategy during peak holiday periods, see our Douyin marketing section. Short video is increasingly where younger Chinese travelers discover destinations before they search anything on Ctrip.

What You Should Track

Beyond bookings, these numbers matter during a CNY campaign:

• Xiaohongshu post saves (not just likes). Saves signal booking intent.
• WeChat QR scans at check-in. Build the follower base during peak season for off-season retargeting.
• Post-CNY repeat rate. Chinese families who have a good experience book again. Off-season retargeting from CNY visitors lifts annual revenue 25-30% based on our client data.

CNY 2026 is nine days of official holiday, potentially 20 days of actual travel window. Destinations that prepare in Q4 2025 will see results. Those that wait until January will be watching from empty lobbies while Japan, Thailand, and Dubai collect the bookings.

If you want to know where to start, look at our full services page. We handle everything from account setup to KOL campaigns to paid ads on Chinese platforms.

About Alex — Project manager at Chinese Tourist Agency. Over 200 campaigns for hotels, tour operators and destinations. Still learning something new from Chinese tourists every quarter.