2026 Chinese Outbound Tourism Forecast: 175 Million Trips

You hear the number 175 million and it sounds big. That is the forecast for Chinese outbound trips this year. After more than ten years helping brands reach Chinese travelers, I see this number as a real turning point. Not just a recovery. A shift in how people travel, why they travel, and what they spend on.

What outbound tourism means, for the record

Chinese outbound tourism is simply Chinese people leaving China to visit other countries. Holidays, family visits, business trips. A few days or a few weeks. The trips can be short or long. Before you think about marketing or business, you need to understand this basic idea. These travelers bring money, attention, and repeat visits to places that treat them well.

The market stopped cold in 2020. Borders closed. Flights vanished. Everyone stayed home. Then recovery started slowly. Last year we saw solid growth. This year forecasts point to 175 million trips. That matches the peak we had just before the pandemic. I managed campaigns through the recovery period and I can tell you: the travelers who came back are not the same people who left.

Why the numbers moved

A few reasons stand out. Many countries rolled out visa-free entry for Chinese passport holders. That removes a big headache. The yuan sits stronger against most currencies. Airlines added direct flights again. Families and young professionals finally have time and confidence to travel.

In 2023 I was helping a small hotel group in southern France. They had waited two years for Chinese guests to return. When visa rules eased, bookings jumped 40 percent in three months. Nothing fancy. Simple WeChat messages in Chinese and clear information about local food. That showed me the power of basic moves done right.

Chinese travelers changed too. Years ago many focused on shopping and big group tours. Today they want experiences. Good food, nature walks, local culture. Younger travelers and families lead this shift. They book their own trips instead of joining big buses. They read reviews on Xiaohongshu. They watch short videos on Douyin before deciding.

From the field: three situations that taught us a lot

A luxury resort in Mauritius. They spent money on beautiful photos but forgot to translate their booking page properly. Chinese guests arrived and felt confused about dinner times and room policies. Reviews turned negative fast. We fixed the basics in four weeks: Chinese booking page, a short FAQ in Mandarin, WeChat Pay. Bookings recovered. Simple stuff matters more than fancy ads.

A château near Bordeaux. After adding a WeChat account and a short Chinese guide explaining wine tasting, bookings from China doubled in one quarter. We added QR codes at the tasting room that explained each wine in simple Chinese. Guests shared it on Xiaohongshu. New bookings came from that alone.

A tourism board in Mauritius. We helped them set up a WeChat official account with a simple mini-program for direct bookings. No complicated English forms. Inquiries rose 60 percent in the first quarter. The key was responding in Chinese within minutes, not days.

What we tried that did not work

Early on we pushed several clients toward big KOL partnerships. Expensive influencers with millions of followers. The reach was there but the conversion was low. Chinese travelers did not trust polished promotional content. They trusted real guests, real photos, real comments from people like them. We pivoted to micro-KOLs and UGC campaigns. That worked much better. We now start with that approach by default.

Another mistake: launching on every platform at once. One client tried WeChat, Douyin, Xiaohongshu, and Weibo at the same time with a team that had no Chinese speaker. Nothing was consistent, nothing was answered quickly, reviews piled up without response. We scaled back to two platforms and one dedicated person. Within three months the results were clearer and the client was not burning out.

Our current standard approach

After 50 plus campaigns across hotels, resorts, and destination boards, here is what we now do by default when a new client onboards:

1. Check the basics first. Website loads on a Chinese phone. Booking page works without a VPN. Alipay and WeChat Pay are live.
2. Set up WeChat official account. This is the communication channel. Everything else feeds into it.
3. Create three to five short videos from the guest point of view. Real staff, real spaces, no actors.
4. Post on Xiaohongshu with honest text. Travelers there read. They are not just scrolling, they are researching.
5. Respond to every comment in the first 30 days. That builds the account’s credibility faster than posting frequency.

Key data for 2026

Some numbers worth knowing when you build your brief or present to a client:

• 175 million outbound trips forecast for 2026, up from 153 million in 2025.
• $255 billion in total traveler spend expected, with average spend per trip around $1,460.
• 68 percent of outbound trips are now independent travel, not group tours.
• Southeast Asia takes 64 percent of volume. Europe holds 13 percent. Middle East is the fastest growing at plus 38 percent.
• Chinese New Year and Golden Week remain the two biggest booking spikes, but summer 2026 is showing stronger growth than previous years.

Four practical steps for tourism businesses

Start by checking your online presence. Open your website on a Chinese phone. Is it fast? Does it load properly? Can people pay with Alipay or WeChat Pay? Fix these first before spending on content.

Create content where people already look. Post short videos showing what a normal day feels like at your place. Real staff, real guests, real food. Chinese travelers spot fake content fast.

Build a direct channel. Set up a WeChat official account. Offer a small discount for followers. Use it to send updates about local events or special deals. That keeps you present instead of depending on platforms that may change their algorithm.

Measure what works. Track which cities your visitors come from. Look at which posts get shared. Adjust quickly. The market moves faster than most people expect.

The destinations that win and the ones that do not

Southeast Asia stays popular. Thailand, Vietnam, South Korea draw the biggest crowds. They feel close, affordable, and welcoming. Europe grows again for longer trips. France, Italy, and Spain attract people who want culture and food. Japan still pulls strong numbers but some travelers look elsewhere after recent crowds.

Not every place benefits equally. Some destinations still treat Chinese visitors as an afterthought. Signs stay only in English. Staff speak slowly or not at all. Payment options feel limited. These small details push travelers away and they write about it on Xiaohongshu.

Summary

Topic	Key point
Total trips 2026	175 million forecast
Total spend	$255 billion
Independent travel share	68 percent of trips
Fastest growing region	Middle East, plus 38 percent
Top platforms for research	Xiaohongshu, Douyin, WeChat
What works for SMEs	WeChat account, real video content, fast replies
What does not work	Machine translation only, big KOL with no follow-up

For more on the digital tools that drive Chinese traveler decisions, see our guides on WeChat marketing and Xiaohongshu RED marketing.

Sources

Skift — Global travel intelligence platform citing China Trading Desk forecast of 175 million Chinese outbound trips and $280 billion spend in 2026. https://skift.com/2026/02/24/the-280-billion-chinese-outbound-comeback-that-destinations-cant-ignore/

China Trading Desk — Specialized China travel consultancy that originated the core forecast of 175 million trips and $280 billion outbound spend. https://www.chinatradingdesk.com/post/china-trading-desk-projects-us-280bn-in-china-outbound-spend-for-2026

About Alex: Project manager at Chinese Tourist Agency, Shanghai. Runs Douyin, RED and WeChat campaigns for tourism clients on 4 continents. Still learns something new from Chinese tourists every week.